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Slavia Praha vs FC Basel 1893 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
1/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slavia Praha35%
×Draw21%
FC Basel 189344%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
1.80
FC Basel 1893
2.04

FC Basel 1893 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.36
FC Basel 1893
3.00

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.09
FC Basel 1893
1.25

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
56%
Slavia Praha or FC Basel 1893
79%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
65%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
18%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
83%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
54%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
27%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
87%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
60%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
44%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.36 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.00 + Slavia Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
35%
level
21%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
44%

FC Basel 1893 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat Slavia Praha 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2026.