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Slavia Praha vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Champions League 2018

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
J. Hušbauer 90+5' (pen)
B. Verbič 82'
8/7/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundEden Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slavia Praha43%
×Draw26%
Dynamo Kyiv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
1.41
Dynamo Kyiv
1.16

Slavia Praha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
0.82
Dynamo Kyiv
0.77

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.55
Dynamo Kyiv
2.00

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
69%
Slavia Praha or Dynamo Kyiv
74%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
57%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
20%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
41%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
17%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
32%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
58%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 0.82 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.77 + Slavia Praha defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
43%
level
26%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
31%

Slavia Praha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
S. Tecl← M. Škoda
65'
Vitaliy Buyalskyy
68'
V. Shepelev← V. Buyalskyy
80'
A. Băluță← J. Zmrhal
82'
B. Verbič↳ S. Sydorchuk
86'
Josef Hušbauer
86'
P. Olayinka← J. Sýkora
89'
Vladimír Coufal
90'
Tomasz Kędziora
90+1'
O. Andrievsky← V. Tsygankov
90+5'
J. HušbauerPenalty

Possession

49%Slavia

Shots

12Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaDynamo
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots2
6Corners4
13Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots2
4On Target1
8Off Target1
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

UEFA Champions League: Slavia Praha 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv

Slavia Praha and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 7, 2018.

Goals: B. Verbič (82'), J. Hušbauer (90+5' pen).

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (51%) and registered 2 shots to 12.

The match was played at Eden Arena in Prague.