Slavia Praha 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

J. Bořil 66'

8/28/2019

UEFA Champions League · Play-offsSinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha28%

×Draw26%

CFR 1907 Cluj46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.44

Slavia Praha

1.07

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.44

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

0.82

creates per match

1.33

1.55

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Slavia Praha

0.82

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.55

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

54%

Slavia Praha or CFR 1907 Cluj

74%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

72%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

11%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

66%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

29%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

9%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

76%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

42%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

38%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 0.82 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.33 + Slavia Praha defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

28%

level

26%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

46%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Bořil

Slavia Praha · D

8.1

Match Events

39'

40'

44'

47'

64'

A. Păun← Luís Aurélio

66'

J. Bořil↳ D. Hovorka

69'

G. Țucudean← M. Rondón

70'

O. Hoban← C. Deac

79'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal← M. Škoda

80'

George Țucudean

84'

Ibrahim Traore← L. Masopust

90'

Damjan Đoković

90'

M. Frydrych← N. Stanciu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaCFR

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots8

10Corners9

13Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

6Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

300Total Passes291

186Accurate Passes179

62%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3