Slavia Praha 3–2 Ballkani: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Ballkani

L. Masopust 41'

P. Olayinka 34'

S. Frashëri 26' (OG)

M. Korenica 29'

E. Krasniqi 23'

9/15/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slavia Praha51%

×Draw23%

Ballkani27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchBallkani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.32

Slavia Praha

1.89

Ballkani

1.32

Slavia Praha creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

2.45

creates per match

1.47

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.45

Ballkani

1.47

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.18

Ballkani

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Ballkani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

73%

Slavia Praha or Ballkani

77%

Draw or Ballkani

49%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

29%

Ballkani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

85%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

56%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

29%

Ballkani 1+ goals

73%

Ballkani 2+ goals

38%

Ballkani 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

65%

Ballkani (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.45 + Ballkani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ballkani attack 1.47 + Slavia Praha defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

51%

level

23%

Ballkani scores more

27%

Slavia Praha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Olayinka

Slavia Praha · F

8.0

Match Events

23'

E. Krasniqi↳ A. Thaçi

26'

S. FrashëriOwn goal

27'

Christ Junior Tiehi

29'

M. Korenica↳ A. Rrahmani

34'

P. Olayinka↳ L. Masopust

41'

L. Masopust↳ P. Olayinka

46'

M. Usor← L. Masopust

46'

I. Traoré← L. Provod

55'

Ibrahim Traoré

67'

S. Tecl← O. Lingr

68'

L. Bekteshi← A. Rrahmani

69'

Ivan Schranz

77'

Egzon Sinani

77'

A. Berisha← E. Krasniqi

77'

Lucas← M. Korenica

80'

O. Dorley← I. Schranz

84'

Astrit Thaqi

86'

A. Potoku← E. Sinani

89'

Ewerton← D. Jurásek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaBallkani

Overview

69%Possession31%

23Total Shots4

12Corners1

18Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots4

7On Target2

7Off Target2

9Blocked0

14Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

554Total Passes267

462Accurate Passes167

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3