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Slavia Praha vs AIK Stockholm — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
P. Sevcik 82'
O. Dorley 67'
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slavia Praha67%
×Draw18%
AIK Stockholm15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.50
AIK Stockholm
1.10

Slavia Praha creates 127% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.21
AIK Stockholm
1.00

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.21
AIK Stockholm
2.80

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
85%
Slavia Praha or AIK Stockholm
82%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
45%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
92%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
71%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
45%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
67%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
30%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
82%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.21 + AIK Stockholm defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.50

AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
67%
level
18%
AIK Stockholm scores more
15%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
A. Mandous← J. Sirotnik
46'
T. Vlcek← M. Tomic
46'
S. Sinyan← I. Ogbu
46'
J. Boril← J. Boril
46'
D. Doudera← P. Sevcik
46'
C. Zafeiris← O. Dorley
46'
C. Wallem← S. Tecl
46'
O. Zmrzly← B. Ogungbayi
46'
L. Provod← A. Dumitrescu
46'
V. Jurecka← M. Tijani
46'
M. Chytil← M. van Buren
46'
A. Milosevic← A. Ali
46'
B. Celina← D. Besirovic
46'
M. Thychosen← Z. Elbouzedi
46'
I. Pittas← J. Kusi Asare
46'
O. Faraj← S. Papagiannopoulos
46'
M. Ellingsen← T. Ayari
60'
A. Bjornstrom← R. Modesto
60'
B. Tiedemann← A. Magashy
60'
A. Saletros← R. Bonde
60'
E. Ring← A. Faqa
67'
O. Dorley↳ A. Dumitrescu
68'
A. Dumitrescu← M. Jurasek
82'
P. Sevcik↳ B. Ogungbayi
87'
S. Tecl← J. Lacko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Slavia Praha 2–0 AIK Stockholm

Slavia Praha beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2024.

Goals: O. Dorley (67'), P. Sevcik (82').

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in Almancil.