Slavia Praha U19 5–3 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Slavia Praha U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Viktoria Plzeň U19

9/24/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 10Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Praha U1940%

×Draw22%

Viktoria Plzeň U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Praha U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Plzeň U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.69

Slavia Praha U19

1.77

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

1.93

creates per match

1.57

1.80

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Slavia Praha U19

1.93

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.57

allows per match

Slavia Praha U19

1.80

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slavia Praha U19 or draw

63%

Slavia Praha U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19

78%

Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19

60%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha U19 wins by 2+

21%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Slavia Praha U19 1+ goals

83%

Slavia Praha U19 2+ goals

53%

Slavia Praha U19 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals

82%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals

50%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha U19 attack 1.93 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Slavia Praha U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavia Praha U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more

37%

Slavia Praha U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slavia Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff