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Slavia Praha II vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vyškov
Vyškov
10/2/2022FNLFNL · Round 10Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavia Praha II43%
×Draw25%
Vyškov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha II
1.49
Vyškov
1.25

Slavia Praha II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha II
1.76
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Slavia Praha II
1.33
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw
68%
Slavia Praha II or Vyškov
75%
Draw or Vyškov
57%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
21%
Vyškov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
77%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
44%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
19%
Vyškov 1+ goals
71%
Vyškov 2+ goals
36%
Vyškov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
57%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 1.76 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more
43%
level
25%
Vyškov scores more
32%

Slavia Praha II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha II vs Vyškov

Slavia Praha II beat Vyškov 3-1 in FNL on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.