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Slavia Praha II vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Přeštice
Přeštice
3/31/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 20Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slavia Praha II66%
×Draw19%
Přeštice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha II
2.35
Přeštice
1.07

Slavia Praha II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha II
2.77
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Slavia Praha II
0.97
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw
84%
Slavia Praha II or Přeštice
81%
Draw or Přeštice
34%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
43%
Přeštice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
90%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
68%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
41%
Přeštice 1+ goals
66%
Přeštice 2+ goals
29%
Přeštice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
80%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 2.77 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.35

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Slavia Praha II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more
66%
level
19%
Přeštice scores more
16%

Slavia Praha II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha II vs Přeštice

Slavia Praha II beat Přeštice 7-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.