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Slavia Praha II vs Dukla Praha — FNL 2019

Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
8/28/2022FNLFNL · Round 5Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavia Praha II42%
×Draw24%
Dukla Praha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha II
1.58
Dukla Praha
1.37

Slavia Praha II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha II
1.76
Dukla Praha
1.41

allows per match

Slavia Praha II
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.41

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par
Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Dukla Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw
67%
Slavia Praha II or Dukla Praha
76%
Draw or Dukla Praha
58%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
21%
Dukla Praha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
21%
Dukla Praha 1+ goals
75%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
40%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
56%
Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 1.76 + Dukla Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dukla Praha attack 1.41 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more
42%
level
24%
Dukla Praha scores more
33%

Slavia Praha II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha II vs Dukla Praha

Dukla Praha beat Slavia Praha II 3-1 in FNL on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.