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Slavia Praha II vs Artis — FNL 2019

Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Artis
Artis
3/2/2025FNLFNL · Round 17Sportovní centrum Radotín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavia Praha II41%
×Draw25%
Artis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha II
1.48
Artis
1.31

Slavia Praha II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 103 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha II
1.76
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Slavia Praha II
1.33
Artis
1.21

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw
66%
Slavia Praha II or Artis
75%
Draw or Artis
59%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
20%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
77%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
43%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
19%
Artis 1+ goals
73%
Artis 2+ goals
38%
Artis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
55%
Artis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 1.76 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Artis attack 1.28 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more
41%
level
25%
Artis scores more
34%

Slavia Praha II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha II vs Artis

Slavia Praha II beat Artis 3-0 in FNL on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Sportovní centrum Radotín in Praha.