Slavia Praha II 3–0 Admira Praha: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Admira Praha

3/3/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 16Vladivostocká UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Slavia Praha II60%

×Draw20%

Admira Praha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Praha IIExpected goals in this matchAdmira Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.21

Slavia Praha II

2.21

Admira Praha

1.21

Slavia Praha II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 83 away

2.77

creates per match

1.46

0.97

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Slavia Praha II

2.77

Admira Praha

1.46

allows per match

Slavia Praha II

0.97

Admira Praha

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha II+0.00on par

Admira Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha II ↓

Admira Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Slavia Praha II or draw

80%

Slavia Praha II or Admira Praha

80%

Draw or Admira Praha

40%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha II wins by 2+

37%

Admira Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Praha II 1+ goals

89%

Slavia Praha II 2+ goals

65%

Slavia Praha II 3+ goals

38%

Admira Praha 1+ goals

70%

Admira Praha 2+ goals

34%

Admira Praha 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)

75%

Admira Praha (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha II at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Admira Praha away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha II attack 2.77 + Admira Praha defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.21

Admira Praha attack 1.46 + Slavia Praha II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavia Praha II scores more

60%

level

20%

Admira Praha scores more

20%

Slavia Praha II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff