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Slavia Mozyr vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
5/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stadion Junost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Slavia Mozyr34%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Zhodino38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.15
Torpedo Zhodino
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 124 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.21
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
62%
Slavia Mozyr or Torpedo Zhodino
72%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
66%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
14%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
68%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
32%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
35%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
47%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
34%
level
28%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
38%

Torpedo Zhodino at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Slavia Mozyr 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino

Slavia Mozyr beat Torpedo Zhodino 1-0 in Premier League on May 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Junost in Mozyr.