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Slavia Mozyr vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
A. Ivanov 73'
I. Kukharchik 63'
A. Solovey 56'
4/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stadion Junost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Slavia Mozyr27%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Minsk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.04
Dinamo Minsk
1.44

Dinamo Minsk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 114 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Dinamo Minsk
1.69

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.18
Dinamo Minsk
0.82

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
54%
Slavia Mozyr or Dinamo Minsk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
73%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
10%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
28%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
37%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.82 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.69 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
27%
level
26%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
46%

Dinamo Minsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Evgeni Malashevich
30'
Pavel Chikida
41'
Alexander Dzhigero
56'
A. Solovey↳ I. Kukharchik
59'
F. Ibrahim← A. Vakulich
63'
Y. Kuznetsov← T. Lutsevich
63'
I. Kukharchik
65'
V. Pigas← N. Demchenko
65'
M. Djimet← E. Malashevich
68'
V. Davydov← V. Poloz
68'
A. Lukashov← A. Dzhigero
73'
K. Tsepenkov← A. Zhechko
73'
A. Ivanov↳ I. Kukharchik
89'
L. Bamba← I. Kukharchik
89'
V. Likhtin← N. Ivanov

Statistics

SlaviaDinamo
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Premier League: Slavia Mozyr 3–0 Dinamo Minsk

Slavia Mozyr beat Dinamo Minsk 3-0 in Premier League on April 13, 2025.

Goals: A. Solovey (56'), I. Kukharchik (63'), A. Ivanov (73').

The match was played at Stadion Junost in Mozyr.