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Slaven Živinice vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
3 – 0
Orašje
Orašje
8/24/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice39%
×Draw25%
Orašje36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.50
Orašje
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 46 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
64%
Slaven Živinice or Orašje
75%
Draw or Orašje
61%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
19%
Orašje wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
78%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
44%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
19%
Orašje 1+ goals
76%
Orašje 2+ goals
42%
Orašje 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
52%
Orašje (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Orašje attack 0.96 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
39%
level
25%
Orašje scores more
36%

Slaven Živinice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slaven Živinice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Slaven Živinice 3–0 Orašje

Slaven Živinice beat Orašje 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.