Slaven Živinice 1–2 Jedinstvo Bihać: Result & Stats

Slaven Živinice

FT

1 – 2

Jedinstvo Bihać

10/13/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice39%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Bihać35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slaven ŽiviniceExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Bihać

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.30

Slaven Živinice

1.40

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

0.83

creates per match

0.69

1.91

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Slaven Živinice

0.83

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.69

allows per match

Slaven Živinice

1.91

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw

65%

Slaven Živinice or Jedinstvo Bihać

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać

61%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

18%

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

75%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

41%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

17%

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

73%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

37%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

53%

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more

39%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

35%

Slaven Živinice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slaven Živinice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff