Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slatina vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Slatina
Slatina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rapid
Rapid
9/12/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Slatina38%
×Draw29%
Rapid33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slatina
1.15
Rapid
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 29 away

creates per match

Slatina
1.05
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Slatina
0.74
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Slatina+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slatina ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Slatina or draw
67%
Slatina or Rapid
71%
Draw or Rapid
62%

Winning margin

Slatina wins by 2+
16%
Rapid wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slatina 1+ goals
68%
Slatina 2+ goals
32%
Slatina 3+ goals
11%
Rapid 1+ goals
65%
Rapid 2+ goals
29%
Rapid 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slatina (draw refunded)
53%
Rapid (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slatina at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.74 · 65 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slatina attack 1.05 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rapid attack 1.38 + Slatina defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slatina scores more
38%
level
29%
Rapid scores more
33%

Slatina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Slatina 0–3 Rapid

Rapid beat Slatina 3-0 in Liga II on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slatina.