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Slatina vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Slatina
Slatina
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
9/23/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slatina43%
×Draw28%
CSM Reşiţa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slatina
1.26
CSM Reşiţa
0.98

Slatina creates 29% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slatina
1.05
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Slatina
0.74
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Slatina+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slatina ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Slatina or draw
71%
Slatina or CSM Reşiţa
72%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
57%

Winning margin

Slatina wins by 2+
19%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slatina 1+ goals
72%
Slatina 2+ goals
36%
Slatina 3+ goals
13%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
62%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
26%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slatina (draw refunded)
60%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slatina at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.74 · 65 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slatina attack 1.05 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Slatina defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slatina scores more
43%
level
28%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
29%

Slatina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slatina vs CSM Reşiţa

Slatina beat CSM Reşiţa 4-0 in Liga II on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slatina.