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Slatina vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Slatina
Slatina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
10/8/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Slatina39%
×Draw30%
Csikszereda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slatina
1.10
Csikszereda
0.93

Slatina creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

creates per match

Slatina
1.05
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Slatina
0.74
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Slatina+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slatina ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Slatina or draw
70%
Slatina or Csikszereda
70%
Draw or Csikszereda
61%

Winning margin

Slatina wins by 2+
16%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slatina 1+ goals
67%
Slatina 2+ goals
30%
Slatina 3+ goals
10%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
61%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
24%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slatina (draw refunded)
56%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slatina at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.74 · 65 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slatina attack 1.05 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Slatina defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slatina scores more
39%
level
30%
Csikszereda scores more
30%

Slatina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Slatina 2–0 Csikszereda

Slatina beat Csikszereda 2-0 in Liga II on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slatina.