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Slatina vs Corvinul Hunedoara — Liga II 2018

Slatina
Slatina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
12/7/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul 1 Mai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Slatina34%
×Draw30%
Corvinul Hunedoara36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slatina
1.02
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 42 away

creates per match

Slatina
1.05
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.38

allows per match

Slatina
0.74
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.00

finishing

Slatina+0.00on par
Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slatina ↓

Corvinul Hunedoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Slatina or draw
64%
Slatina or Corvinul Hunedoara
70%
Draw or Corvinul Hunedoara
66%

Winning margin

Slatina wins by 2+
13%
Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slatina 1+ goals
64%
Slatina 2+ goals
27%
Slatina 3+ goals
8%
Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
65%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
29%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slatina (draw refunded)
49%
Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slatina at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.74 · 65 matches

Corvinul Hunedoara away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slatina attack 1.05 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.38 + Slatina defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Slatina scores more
34%
level
30%
Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
36%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slatina vs Corvinul Hunedoara

Slatina beat Corvinul Hunedoara 1-0 in Liga II on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul 1 Mai in Slatina.