Slask Wroclaw W 0–0 UKS Łódź W: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UKS Łódź W

11/9/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 11Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Slask Wroclaw W38%

×Draw24%

UKS Łódź W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask Wroclaw WExpected goals in this matchUKS Łódź W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.58

Slask Wroclaw W

1.57

UKS Łódź W

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.94

creates per match

1.76

1.41

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw W

1.94

UKS Łódź W

1.76

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw W

1.41

UKS Łódź W

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

UKS Łódź W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw W ↓

UKS Łódź W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw W or draw

62%

Slask Wroclaw W or UKS Łódź W

76%

Draw or UKS Łódź W

62%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

19%

UKS Łódź W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

79%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

46%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

21%

UKS Łódź W 1+ goals

79%

UKS Łódź W 2+ goals

47%

UKS Łódź W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

50%

UKS Łódź W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw W at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

UKS Łódź W away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.94 + UKS Łódź W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

UKS Łódź W attack 1.76 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

38%

level

24%

UKS Łódź W scores more

38%

Slask Wroclaw W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff