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Slask Wroclaw W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Slask Wroclaw W
Slask Wroclaw W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
10/13/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 9Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Slask Wroclaw W25%
×Draw21%
Czarni Sosnowiec W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slask Wroclaw W
1.40
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.10

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw W
1.94
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.79

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw W
1.41
Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.85

finishing

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par
Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw W ↓

Czarni Sosnowiec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw W or draw
47%
Slask Wroclaw W or Czarni Sosnowiec W
79%
Draw or Czarni Sosnowiec W
75%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+
11%
Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals
75%
Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals
41%
Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals
17%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
88%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
62%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)
32%
Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw W at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.94 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 2.79 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slask Wroclaw W scores more
25%
level
21%
Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
53%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Slask Wroclaw W 0–2 Czarni Sosnowiec W

Czarni Sosnowiec W beat Slask Wroclaw W 2-0 in Ekstraliga Women on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Tarczyński Arena in Wrocław.