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Śląsk Wrocław U19 vs Korona Kielce U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Śląsk Wrocław U19
Śląsk Wrocław U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
3/19/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław U1956%
×Draw19%
Korona Kielce U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław U19
2.44
Korona Kielce U19
1.60

Śląsk Wrocław U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław U19
2.37
Korona Kielce U19
1.86

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław U19
1.34
Korona Kielce U19
2.50

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław U19+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław U19 ↓

Korona Kielce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław U19 or draw
75%
Śląsk Wrocław U19 or Korona Kielce U19
81%
Draw or Korona Kielce U19
44%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław U19 wins by 2+
35%
Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław U19 1+ goals
91%
Śląsk Wrocław U19 2+ goals
70%
Śląsk Wrocław U19 3+ goals
43%
Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
80%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
47%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Korona Kielce U19 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław U19 attack 2.37 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.44

Korona Kielce U19 attack 1.86 + Śląsk Wrocław U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Śląsk Wrocław U19 scores more
56%
level
19%
Korona Kielce U19 scores more
25%

Śląsk Wrocław U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Śląsk Wrocław U19 2–3 Korona Kielce U19

Korona Kielce U19 beat Śląsk Wrocław U19 3-2 in Central Youth League on March 19, 2023.