Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Śląsk Wrocław U18 vs Warta Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Śląsk Wrocław U18
Śląsk Wrocław U18
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
3/5/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław U1851%
×Draw21%
Warta Poznań U1828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław U18
2.06
Warta Poznań U18
1.47

Śląsk Wrocław U18 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.84
Warta Poznań U18
1.53

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.41
Warta Poznań U18
2.27

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław U18+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław U18 or draw
72%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 or Warta Poznań U18
79%
Draw or Warta Poznań U18
49%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław U18 wins by 2+
30%
Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław U18 1+ goals
87%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 2+ goals
61%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 3+ goals
34%
Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
77%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
43%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław U18 (draw refunded)
65%
Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław U18 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław U18 attack 1.84 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + Śląsk Wrocław U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Śląsk Wrocław U18 scores more
51%
level
21%
Warta Poznań U18 scores more
28%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Śląsk Wrocław U18 vs Warta Poznań U18

Śląsk Wrocław U18 beat Warta Poznań U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on March 5, 2022.