Śląsk Wrocław U18 5–1 Legia Warszawa U18

Śląsk Wrocław U18

FT

5 – 1

Legia Warszawa U18

10/21/2020

Central Youth League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław U1843%

×Draw22%

Legia Warszawa U1836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Śląsk Wrocław U18Expected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.79

Śląsk Wrocław U18

1.96

Legia Warszawa U18

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.84

creates per match

2.16

1.41

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław U18

1.84

Legia Warszawa U18

2.16

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław U18

1.41

Legia Warszawa U18

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław U18+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław U18 ↓

Legia Warszawa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław U18 or draw

64%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 or Legia Warszawa U18

78%

Draw or Legia Warszawa U18

57%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław U18 wins by 2+

23%

Legia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław U18 1+ goals

86%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 2+ goals

58%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 3+ goals

31%

Legia Warszawa U18 1+ goals

83%

Legia Warszawa U18 2+ goals

53%

Legia Warszawa U18 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław U18 (draw refunded)

54%

Legia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław U18 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Legia Warszawa U18 away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław U18 attack 1.84 + Legia Warszawa U18 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Legia Warszawa U18 attack 2.16 + Śląsk Wrocław U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Śląsk Wrocław U18 scores more

43%

level

22%

Legia Warszawa U18 scores more

36%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff