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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Unia Turza Śląska — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
8/23/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II63%
×Draw20%
Unia Turza Śląska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.17
Unia Turza Śląska
1.04

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Unia Turza Śląska
1.21

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Unia Turza Śląska
2.03

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
83%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Unia Turza Śląska
80%
Draw or Unia Turza Śląska
37%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
40%
Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
89%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
64%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
36%
Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
65%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
28%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
78%
Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.17

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
63%
level
20%
Unia Turza Śląska scores more
17%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Śląsk Wrocław II 4–1 Unia Turza Śląska

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Unia Turza Śląska 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.