Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Śląsk Wrocław II vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
10/3/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II48%
×Draw24%
Sokół Ostróda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.74
Sokół Ostróda
1.27

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.38
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.47
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
72%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Sokół Ostróda
76%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
52%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
26%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
82%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
52%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
25%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
36%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
63%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.38 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
48%
level
24%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
28%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Śląsk Wrocław II vs Sokół Ostróda

Śląsk Wrocław II and Sokół Ostróda drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.