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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
3 – 0
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
5/19/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II56%
×Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.01
Raków Częstochowa II
1.21

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
77%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Raków Częstochowa II
78%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
44%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
33%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
87%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
59%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
32%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
70%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
34%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
71%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.01

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
56%
level
22%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
23%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Śląsk Wrocław II 3–0 Raków Częstochowa II

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Raków Częstochowa II 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.