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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
3/11/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II38%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.42
Garbarnia Kraków
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.38
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.47
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
64%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
62%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
18%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
76%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
41%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
17%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
75%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
40%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
51%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.38 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
38%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
36%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Śląsk Wrocław II 2–3 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Śląsk Wrocław II 3-2 in II Liga - East on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.