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Slaný vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Slaný
Slaný
CANC
14:30
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
4/3/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Slaný70%
×Draw17%
Tatran Rakovník13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaný
2.54
Tatran Rakovník
1.03

Slaný creates 147% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Slaný
1.70
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Slaný
1.31
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Slaný+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaný ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slaný or draw
87%
Slaný or Tatran Rakovník
83%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
30%

Winning margin

Slaný wins by 2+
48%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slaný 1+ goals
92%
Slaný 2+ goals
72%
Slaný 3+ goals
46%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
64%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
28%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slaný (draw refunded)
84%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaný at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.31 · 81 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaný attack 1.70 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.54

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Slaný defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slaný scores more
70%
level
17%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
13%

Slaný at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slaný will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slaný host Tatran Rakovník

April 3, 2021: Slaný take on Tatran Rakovník in 4. liga - Divizie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slaný host Tatran Rakovník at Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.