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Slaný vs Sokol Nespeky — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Slaný
Slaný
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Nespeky
Sokol Nespeky
6/7/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 30Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slaný64%
×Draw19%
Sokol Nespeky17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaný
2.29
Sokol Nespeky
1.09

Slaný creates 110% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slaný
1.70
Sokol Nespeky
0.87

allows per match

Slaný
1.31
Sokol Nespeky
2.87

finishing

Slaný+0.00on par
Sokol Nespeky+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaný ↓

Sokol Nespeky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slaný or draw
83%
Slaný or Sokol Nespeky
81%
Draw or Sokol Nespeky
36%

Winning margin

Slaný wins by 2+
41%
Sokol Nespeky wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slaný 1+ goals
90%
Slaný 2+ goals
66%
Slaný 3+ goals
40%
Sokol Nespeky 1+ goals
66%
Sokol Nespeky 2+ goals
30%
Sokol Nespeky 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slaný (draw refunded)
79%
Sokol Nespeky (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaný at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.31 · 81 matches

Sokol Nespeky away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaný attack 1.70 + Sokol Nespeky defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sokol Nespeky attack 0.87 + Slaný defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slaný scores more
64%
level
19%
Sokol Nespeky scores more
17%

Slaný at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slaný will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slaný vs Sokol Nespeky

Slaný and Sokol Nespeky drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště in Slany.