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Slaný vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Slaný
Slaný
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 19Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Slaný53%
×Draw22%
Olympie Březová26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaný
2.00
Olympie Březová
1.34

Slaný creates 49% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 84 away

creates per match

Slaný
1.70
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Slaný
1.31
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Slaný+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaný ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slaný or draw
74%
Slaný or Olympie Březová
78%
Draw or Olympie Březová
47%

Winning margin

Slaný wins by 2+
31%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slaný 1+ goals
86%
Slaný 2+ goals
59%
Slaný 3+ goals
32%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
74%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
39%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slaný (draw refunded)
67%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaný at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.31 · 81 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaný attack 1.70 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Slaný defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slaný scores more
53%
level
22%
Olympie Březová scores more
26%

Slaný at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slaný will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slaný 0 – 1 Olympie Březová

Olympie Březová beat Slaný 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Víceúcelová sportovní hala Fotbalové hřiště in Slany.