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Slagelse B&I vs Avarta — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Slagelse B&I
Slagelse B&I
CANC
00:00
Avarta
Avarta
4/9/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Harboe Arena Slagelse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slagelse B&I25%
×Draw30%
Avarta45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slagelse B&I
0.81
Avarta
1.19

Avarta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slagelse B&I
0.75
Avarta
1.13

allows per match

Slagelse B&I
1.25
Avarta
0.88

finishing

Slagelse B&I+0.00on par
Avarta+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slagelse B&I ↓

Avarta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Slagelse B&I or draw
55%
Slagelse B&I or Avarta
70%
Draw or Avarta
75%

Winning margin

Slagelse B&I wins by 2+
8%
Avarta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slagelse B&I 1+ goals
56%
Slagelse B&I 2+ goals
19%
Slagelse B&I 3+ goals
5%
Avarta 1+ goals
70%
Avarta 2+ goals
33%
Avarta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slagelse B&I (draw refunded)
36%
Avarta (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slagelse B&I at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Avarta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slagelse B&I attack 0.75 + Avarta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Avarta attack 1.13 + Slagelse B&I defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slagelse B&I scores more
25%
level
30%
Avarta scores more
45%

Avarta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slagelse B&I host Avarta

April 9, 2020: Slagelse B&I take on Avarta in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slagelse B&I host Avarta at Harboe Arena Slagelse.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.