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SL Benfica W vs Sporting CP W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

SL Benfica W
SL Benfica W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
5/1/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 17Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SL Benfica W51%
×Draw21%
Sporting CP W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SL Benfica W
2.17
Sporting CP W
1.60

SL Benfica W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

SL Benfica W
3.76
Sporting CP W
2.74

allows per match

SL Benfica W
0.45
Sporting CP W
0.57

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par
Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Sporting CP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw
71%
SL Benfica W or Sporting CP W
79%
Draw or Sporting CP W
49%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+
30%
Sporting CP W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals
89%
SL Benfica W 2+ goals
64%
SL Benfica W 3+ goals
36%
Sporting CP W 1+ goals
80%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
47%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)
64%
Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 3.76, concedes 0.45 · 42 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 3.76 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + SL Benfica W defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SL Benfica W scores more
51%
level
21%
Sporting CP W scores more
29%

SL Benfica W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SL Benfica W vs Sporting CP W

SL Benfica W beat Sporting CP W 3-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.