SL Benfica W 1–1 Paris Saint Germain W

SL Benfica W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paris Saint Germain W

C. Costa 32' (pen)

J. Echegini 5'

12/17/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 6Estádio da Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

SL Benfica W44%

×Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SL Benfica WExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.67

SL Benfica W

1.92

Paris Saint Germain W

1.67

SL Benfica W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

2.54

creates per match

1.93

1.42

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

SL Benfica W

2.54

Paris Saint Germain W

1.93

allows per match

SL Benfica W

1.42

Paris Saint Germain W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw

66%

SL Benfica W or Paris Saint Germain W

78%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain W

56%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

24%

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

85%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

57%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

30%

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

81%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

50%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

56%

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 2.54 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Paris Saint Germain W attack 1.93 + SL Benfica W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SL Benfica W scores more

44%

level

22%

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

34%

SL Benfica W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Echegini

Paris Saint Germain W · M

8.7

Match Events

5'

J. Echegini↳ F. Brennskag-Dorsin

24'

Élisa de Almeida

32'

C. CostaPenalty

46'

Isabela← E. De Almeida

46'

J. Groenen← T. Diakite

61'

L. Almeida← C. Amado

61'

R. Engesvik← L. C. Sousa Alves

61'

L. Martins← C. Davidson

61'

Pauleta← N. Raysla

65'

F. Jourde← T. Samoura

65'

L. Morissaint← O. Graziani

70'

Anaïs EbayilinGoal cancelled

73'

Clarinha← A. Gasper

81'

Léa Morissaint

83'

N. Fatier← M. Kanjinga

90+7'

Isabela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SLParis

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots19

2Corners7

15Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots19

3On Target2

7Off Target8

3Blocked9

8Inside Box15

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

366Total Passes335

290Accurate Passes258

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2