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SL Benfica W vs Ouriense W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

SL Benfica W
SL Benfica W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Ouriense W
Ouriense W
2/18/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 14Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SL Benfica W88%
×Draw9%
Ouriense W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SL Benfica W
3.25
Ouriense W
0.55

SL Benfica W creates 491% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

SL Benfica W
3.76
Ouriense W
0.64

allows per match

SL Benfica W
0.45
Ouriense W
2.73

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par
Ouriense W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Ouriense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw
96%
SL Benfica W or Ouriense W
91%
Draw or Ouriense W
12%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+
71%
Ouriense W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals
96%
SL Benfica W 2+ goals
83%
SL Benfica W 3+ goals
61%
Ouriense W 1+ goals
42%
Ouriense W 2+ goals
11%
Ouriense W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)
96%
Ouriense W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 3.76, concedes 0.45 · 42 matches

Ouriense W away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 3.76 + Ouriense W defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 3.25

Ouriense W attack 0.64 + SL Benfica W defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

SL Benfica W scores more
88%
level
9%
Ouriense W scores more
4%

SL Benfica W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SL Benfica W vs Ouriense W

SL Benfica W beat Ouriense W 6-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.