SL Benfica W 1–2 Lyon W: Result & Stats

SL Benfica W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lyon W

3/19/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Quarter-finalsEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

SL Benfica W33%

×Draw21%

Lyon W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SL Benfica WExpected goals in this matchLyon W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.05

SL Benfica W

1.70

Lyon W

2.05

Lyon W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

2.54

creates per match

2.68

1.42

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

SL Benfica W

2.54

Lyon W

2.68

allows per match

SL Benfica W

1.42

Lyon W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Lyon W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw

54%

SL Benfica W or Lyon W

79%

Draw or Lyon W

67%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

16%

Lyon W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

82%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

51%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

24%

Lyon W 1+ goals

87%

Lyon W 2+ goals

61%

Lyon W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

41%

Lyon W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Lyon W away — creates 2.68, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 2.54 + Lyon W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lyon W attack 2.68 + SL Benfica W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SL Benfica W scores more

33%

level

21%

Lyon W scores more

46%

Lyon W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff