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SL Benfica W vs Hajvalia W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

SL Benfica W
SL Benfica Wadvanced
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hajvalia W
Hajvalia W
8/18/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsSportpark Het Diekman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SL Benfica W60%
×Draw16%
Hajvalia W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SL Benfica W
3.44
Hajvalia W
2.21

SL Benfica W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

SL Benfica W
2.54
Hajvalia W
3.00

allows per match

SL Benfica W
1.42
Hajvalia W
4.33

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par
Hajvalia W+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Hajvalia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw
76%
SL Benfica W or Hajvalia W
84%
Draw or Hajvalia W
40%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+
42%
Hajvalia W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals
97%
SL Benfica W 2+ goals
85%
SL Benfica W 3+ goals
65%
Hajvalia W 1+ goals
89%
Hajvalia W 2+ goals
65%
Hajvalia W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)
72%
Hajvalia W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Hajvalia W away — creates 3.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 2.54 + Hajvalia W defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.44

Hajvalia W attack 3.00 + SL Benfica W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SL Benfica W scores more
60%
level
16%
Hajvalia W scores more
24%

SL Benfica W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SL Benfica W vs Hajvalia W

SL Benfica W beat Hajvalia W 9-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Diekman in Enschede.