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SL Benfica W vs Estoril Praia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

SL Benfica W
SL Benfica W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
1/19/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 13Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SL Benfica W76%
×Draw13%
Estoril Praia W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SL Benfica W
3.20
Estoril Praia W
1.14

SL Benfica W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

SL Benfica W
3.76
Estoril Praia W
1.82

allows per match

SL Benfica W
0.45
Estoril Praia W
2.64

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par
Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Estoril Praia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw
90%
SL Benfica W or Estoril Praia W
87%
Draw or Estoril Praia W
24%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+
57%
Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals
96%
SL Benfica W 2+ goals
82%
SL Benfica W 3+ goals
60%
Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
68%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
32%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)
88%
Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 3.76, concedes 0.45 · 42 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 3.76 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.20

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + SL Benfica W defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

SL Benfica W scores more
76%
level
13%
Estoril Praia W scores more
10%

SL Benfica W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: SL Benfica W 6–1 Estoril Praia W

SL Benfica W beat Estoril Praia W 6-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.