SL Benfica W 4–0 Apollon Limassol W: Result & Stats

SL Benfica W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Apollon Limassol W

10/18/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundCaixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SL Benfica W56%

×Draw19%

Apollon Limassol W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SL Benfica WExpected goals in this matchApollon Limassol W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.61

SL Benfica W

2.47

Apollon Limassol W

1.61

SL Benfica W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

2.54

creates per match

1.80

1.42

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

SL Benfica W

2.54

Apollon Limassol W

1.80

allows per match

SL Benfica W

1.42

Apollon Limassol W

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Apollon Limassol W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw

75%

SL Benfica W or Apollon Limassol W

81%

Draw or Apollon Limassol W

44%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

36%

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

91%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

70%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

44%

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals

80%

Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals

48%

Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

69%

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Apollon Limassol W away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 2.54 + Apollon Limassol W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.47

Apollon Limassol W attack 1.80 + SL Benfica W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SL Benfica W scores more

56%

level

19%

Apollon Limassol W scores more

25%

SL Benfica W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff