SL Benfica W 8–0 Amora W: Result & Stats

SL Benfica W

FT

8 – 0

Amora W

1/15/2023

1a Divisão - Women · Round 11Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SL Benfica W91%

×Draw6%

Amora W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SL Benfica WExpected goals in this matchAmora W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.79

0.55

SL Benfica W

3.79

Amora W

0.55

SL Benfica W creates 589% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

3.76

creates per match

0.64

0.45

allows per match

3.82

creates per match

SL Benfica W

3.76

Amora W

0.64

allows per match

SL Benfica W

0.45

Amora W

3.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Amora W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SL Benfica W ↓

Amora W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

SL Benfica W or draw

98%

SL Benfica W or Amora W

94%

Draw or Amora W

9%

Winning margin

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

78%

Amora W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

98%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

88%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

70%

Amora W 1+ goals

42%

Amora W 2+ goals

11%

Amora W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

97%

Amora W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SL Benfica W at home — creates 3.76, concedes 0.45 · 42 matches

Amora W away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SL Benfica W attack 3.76 + Amora W defence 3.82 → ÷2 → 3.79

Amora W attack 0.64 + SL Benfica W defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

SL Benfica W scores more

91%

level

6%

Amora W scores more

2%

SL Benfica W at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff