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Skyy vs UCC Youngsters — Division One League 2025

Skyy
Skyy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UCC Youngsters
UCC Youngsters
4/12/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skyy64%
×Draw22%
UCC Youngsters14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skyy
1.83
UCC Youngsters
0.73

Skyy creates 151% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skyy
1.60
UCC Youngsters
1.00

allows per match

Skyy
0.47
UCC Youngsters
2.07

finishing

Skyy+0.00on par
UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skyy ↓

UCC Youngsters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Skyy or draw
86%
Skyy or UCC Youngsters
78%
Draw or UCC Youngsters
36%

Winning margin

Skyy wins by 2+
37%
UCC Youngsters wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Skyy 1+ goals
84%
Skyy 2+ goals
54%
Skyy 3+ goals
28%
UCC Youngsters 1+ goals
52%
UCC Youngsters 2+ goals
17%
UCC Youngsters 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Skyy (draw refunded)
82%
UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skyy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

UCC Youngsters away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skyy attack 1.60 + UCC Youngsters defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.83

UCC Youngsters attack 1.00 + Skyy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Skyy scores more
64%
level
22%
UCC Youngsters scores more
14%

Skyy at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Skyy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Skyy 2–0 UCC Youngsters

Skyy beat UCC Youngsters 2-0 in Division One League on April 12, 2026.