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Skyy vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

Skyy
Skyy
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rospak
Rospak
12/28/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skyy55%
×Draw25%
Rospak20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skyy
1.56
Rospak
0.83

Skyy creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skyy
1.60
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

Skyy
0.47
Rospak
1.53

finishing

Skyy+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skyy ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Skyy or draw
80%
Skyy or Rospak
75%
Draw or Rospak
45%

Winning margin

Skyy wins by 2+
29%
Rospak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Skyy 1+ goals
79%
Skyy 2+ goals
46%
Skyy 3+ goals
21%
Rospak 1+ goals
56%
Rospak 2+ goals
20%
Rospak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Skyy (draw refunded)
73%
Rospak (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skyy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skyy attack 1.60 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rospak attack 1.20 + Skyy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Skyy scores more
55%
level
25%
Rospak scores more
20%

Skyy at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Skyy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Skyy 3–1 Rospak

Skyy beat Rospak 3-1 in Division One League on December 28, 2025.