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Skyy vs Police National — Division One League 2025

Skyy
Skyy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Police National
Police National
11/9/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skyy60%
×Draw27%
Police National12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skyy
1.40
Police National
0.47

Skyy creates 198% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skyy
1.60
Police National
0.47

allows per match

Skyy
0.47
Police National
1.20

finishing

Skyy+0.00on par
Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skyy ↓

Police National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Skyy or draw
88%
Skyy or Police National
73%
Draw or Police National
40%

Winning margin

Skyy wins by 2+
31%
Police National wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Skyy 1+ goals
75%
Skyy 2+ goals
41%
Skyy 3+ goals
17%
Police National 1+ goals
37%
Police National 2+ goals
8%
Police National 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Skyy (draw refunded)
83%
Police National (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skyy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skyy attack 1.60 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Police National attack 0.47 + Skyy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Skyy scores more
60%
level
27%
Police National scores more
12%

Skyy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Skyy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skyy vs Police National

Skyy and Police National drew 0-0 in Division One League on November 9, 2025.