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Skyy vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

Skyy
Skyy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
12/7/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skyy58%
×Draw27%
Elmina Sharks15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skyy
1.44
Elmina Sharks
0.57

Skyy creates 153% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skyy
1.60
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

Skyy
0.47
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

Skyy+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skyy ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Skyy or draw
85%
Skyy or Elmina Sharks
73%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
42%

Winning margin

Skyy wins by 2+
30%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Skyy 1+ goals
76%
Skyy 2+ goals
42%
Skyy 3+ goals
18%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
43%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
11%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Skyy (draw refunded)
80%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skyy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skyy attack 1.60 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + Skyy defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Skyy scores more
58%
level
27%
Elmina Sharks scores more
15%

Skyy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Skyy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skyy 2 – 0 Elmina Sharks

Skyy beat Elmina Sharks 2-0 in Division One League on December 7, 2025.