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Skuri vs Zestafoni — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Skuri
Skuri
FT
0 – 3
Zestafoni
Zestafoni
5/13/2024David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundStadioni Sasha Kvaratskhelia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Skuri35%
×Draw20%
Zestafoni46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skuri
2.08
Zestafoni
2.40

Zestafoni creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Skuri
2.17
Zestafoni
1.80

allows per match

Skuri
3.00
Zestafoni
2.00

finishing

Skuri+0.00on par
Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skuri ↓

Zestafoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Skuri or draw
54%
Skuri or Zestafoni
80%
Draw or Zestafoni
65%

Winning margin

Skuri wins by 2+
19%
Zestafoni wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Skuri 1+ goals
87%
Skuri 2+ goals
61%
Skuri 3+ goals
34%
Zestafoni 1+ goals
91%
Zestafoni 2+ goals
69%
Zestafoni 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Skuri (draw refunded)
43%
Zestafoni (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skuri at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skuri attack 2.17 + Zestafoni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Zestafoni attack 1.80 + Skuri defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Skuri scores more
35%
level
20%
Zestafoni scores more
46%

Zestafoni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Skuri 0–3 Zestafoni

Zestafoni beat Skuri 3-0 in David Kipiani Cup on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadioni Sasha Kvaratskhelia in Tsalenjikha.