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Skuri vs Merani Tbilisi II — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Skuri
Skuri
FT
6 – 2
Merani Tbilisi II
Merani Tbilisi II
5/13/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skuri65%
×Draw15%
Merani Tbilisi II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skuri
3.58
Merani Tbilisi II
2.00

Skuri creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Skuri
2.17
Merani Tbilisi II
1.00

allows per match

Skuri
3.00
Merani Tbilisi II
5.00

finishing

Skuri+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skuri ↓

Merani Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Skuri or draw
81%
Skuri or Merani Tbilisi II
85%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi II
35%

Winning margin

Skuri wins by 2+
47%
Merani Tbilisi II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Skuri 1+ goals
97%
Skuri 2+ goals
86%
Skuri 3+ goals
67%
Merani Tbilisi II 1+ goals
86%
Merani Tbilisi II 2+ goals
59%
Merani Tbilisi II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Skuri (draw refunded)
77%
Merani Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skuri at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Merani Tbilisi II away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skuri attack 2.17 + Merani Tbilisi II defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.58

Merani Tbilisi II attack 1.00 + Skuri defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Skuri scores more
65%
level
15%
Merani Tbilisi II scores more
19%

Skuri at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Skuri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Skuri 6–2 Merani Tbilisi II

Skuri beat Merani Tbilisi II 6-2 in David Kipiani Cup on May 13, 2023.