SKRA Częstochowa 3–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

K. Wojtyra 81'

D. Warnecki 35'

P. Nocoń 18'

M. Firlej 51', 4'

5/19/2021

II Liga - East · Round 34Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa43%

×Draw26%

Znicz Pruszków31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.16

SKRA Częstochowa

1.41

Znicz Pruszków

1.16

SKRA Częstochowa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 69 away

1.37

creates per match

1.36

0.95

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.37

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.95

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

69%

SKRA Częstochowa or Znicz Pruszków

74%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

57%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

20%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

76%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

41%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

17%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

69%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

32%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

58%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

43%

level

26%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

31%

SKRA Częstochowa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

18'

35'

36'

46'

M. Gabrych← O. Bonyanga

51'

M. Firlej

63'

R. Golebiowski

64'

L. Hrnčiar← M. Wichtowski

72'

M. Kazimierowicz← D. Pietraszkiewicz

81'

K. Wojtyra

88'

L. Klisiewicz← K. Noiszewski

90'

M. Bieganski

90+1'

R. Brusilo

90+3'

D. Smykowski← D. Warnecki

SKRA

Znicz

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Warnecki

Manager: M. Gołębiewski

72'▲M. Kazimierowicz←▼D. Pietraszkiewicz

88'▲L. Klisiewicz←▼K. Noiszewski

90+3'▲D. Smykowski←▼D. Warnecki

SKRA Częstochowa substitutes

KazimierowiczKlisiewiczSmykowski

Manager: P. Kobierecki

46'▲M. Gabrych←▼O. Bonyanga

64'▲L. Hrnčiar←▼M. Wichtowski

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

GabrychHrnčiar