SKRA Częstochowa 0–0 Olimpia Grudziądz

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

3/15/2024

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa46%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

SKRA Częstochowa

1.48

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.10

SKRA Częstochowa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 69 away

1.37

creates per match

1.26

0.95

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.37

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.95

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

72%

SKRA Częstochowa or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

54%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

23%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

77%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

43%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

67%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

30%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

62%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

46%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

28%

SKRA Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff