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SKRA Częstochowa vs Olimpia Elbląg — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
12/2/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa48%
×Draw27%
Olimpia Elbląg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.41
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

SKRA Częstochowa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 102 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Olimpia Elbląg
1.44

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
75%
SKRA Częstochowa or Olimpia Elbląg
73%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
52%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
23%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
76%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
41%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
17%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
61%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
24%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
66%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
48%
level
27%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
25%

SKRA Częstochowa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 0–1 Olimpia Elbląg

Olimpia Elbląg beat SKRA Częstochowa 1-0 in II Liga - East on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.