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Skovshoved vs HIK — League #123 2026

Skovshoved
Skovshoved
FT
1 – 3
HIK
HIK
G. Lauritzen-Arndal 44'
O. Hoybye 89'
Y. Salech 77' (pen)
M. Al-naser 52'
3/13/2021League #123League #123 · Group 2 - 14Skovshoved IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Skovshoved35%
×Draw25%
HIK39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skovshoved
1.34
HIK
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Skovshoved
1.13
HIK
1.33

allows per match

Skovshoved
1.53
HIK
1.56

finishing

Skovshoved+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skovshoved ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Skovshoved or draw
61%
Skovshoved or HIK
75%
Draw or HIK
65%

Winning margin

Skovshoved wins by 2+
16%
HIK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Skovshoved 1+ goals
74%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
39%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
15%
HIK 1+ goals
76%
HIK 2+ goals
42%
HIK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Skovshoved (draw refunded)
47%
HIK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skovshoved at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

HIK away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skovshoved attack 1.13 + HIK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

HIK attack 1.33 + Skovshoved defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Skovshoved scores more
35%
level
25%
HIK scores more
39%

HIK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
G. Lauritzen-Arndal
52'
M. Al-naser
76'
G. Lauritzen-Arndal
76'
G. Lauritzen-Arndal
77'
Y. SalechPenalty
89'
O. Hoybye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skovshoved vs HIK

HIK beat Skovshoved 3-1 in League #123 on March 13, 2021.

Goals: G. Lauritzen-Arndal (44'), M. Al-naser (52'), Y. Salech (77' pen), O. Hoybye (89').

The match was played at Skovshoved IP in Klampenborg.